Forecast Points to Record-Strong El Niño

AI summary

Seasonal forecast models now give a roughly 90% chance that the 2026-27 El Niño will become the strongest on record, with a median peak Niño 3.4 anomaly of about 3.6°C. The forecast ensemble is unusually consistent and sits above the historical record set in 2015-16, though the article notes that model agreement does not guarantee forecast skill.